Save the Date: Thursday, September 18, 2008

A View from Washington as the 2008 Elections Approach

This fall’s presidential and congressional elections are shaping up as among the most exciting ones in our lifetime, with many important implications for investors.  On the evening of Thursday, September 18, in downtown San Francisco we are inviting Aspiriant clients to join political expert Greg Valliere as he discusses how the elections will affect the economy and individual investors. Topics he’ll discuss include the likelihood of tax changes, pending energy legislation, budget deficits, regulatory changes -- and the great wild card, geopolitics.  The discussion will cover these and other key issues for investors, with plenty of time for a lively question-and-answer session.

Greg Valliere is the chief political strategist of the Washington Research Group, which has provided nonpartisan political, economic, and industry research to institutional investors for more than 30 years. Mr. Valliere coordinates political and economic research, focusing on how Congress and the White House shape fiscal policies and how those developments affect institutional and corporate investors. He is an exclusive commentator for CNBC and appears regularly on all of the network’s programs.

Further details about this event will be sent to clients in early August. In the meantime, we posed the following questions to Mr. Valliere:

Q -- This looks like one of the most exciting elections in recent memory.  What’s your early take?

A -- Barack Obama is a phenomenon and the slight favorite, but the presidential election is too close to call and may stay that way for months to come.  The one result that seems nearly certain is significant gains by the Democrats in the House and Senate, which will have major investment implications.

Q -- What’s the biggest impact next year for investors?

A – Taxes!  They’re going up in the next couple of years -- the issue isn’t whether, it’s when and by how much.  Even if John McCain wins, he will face a Congress that will not extend the Bush tax cuts.  Several key rates are likely to rise -- the top individual rate, capital gains, dividends, etc., and Congress will have to provide some clarity on the estate tax.  Taxes are a huge issue, and I’ll cover this subject in detail in September.

Q -- Will there be major effects in key industry sectors next year?

A -- That’s very likely, as regulations are toughened in the wake of the subprime and housing crises.  And Congress is likely to act in several areas -- energy, health care, defense, financial services, etc.  There will be significant changes, and investors need to prepare.

Q -- What’s the biggest wild card as the elections approach?

A -- Geopolitics, no question.  The big risk is that either the US or Israel will launch an attack on Iranian military bases, or their nuclear facilities.  There are many reasons why oil prices are high, and this concern is a major one.