Recap of Aspiriant Client Conference: September 18, 2008…and Other Remarks

In San Francisco, on September 18, Greg Valliere, political and economic commentator of the Stanford Washington Research Group, spoke to clients and friends of the firm on a variety of key topics. The recording of the event is available at www.aspiriant.com/valliere.html.

Among Valliere’s main predictions and observations;

• Congress: the Democrats will win seats in the House and the Senate…but not enough (60) to cut off debate (filibuster) in the Senate.


• The White House: The vote will be close, with the electoral vote hanging, again, on one or two states. We will go to bed on election night not knowing who the next President will be.


• Taxes: Income taxes, both ordinary and capital gain will go up; the only question is when and how much. The estate tax uncertainty will be resolved, with no repeal, but with permanent exemptions of $3.5 to $5M per person.


• Geopolitical Threats: Among many, the hottest spot of all is Iran; and the greatest near term risk is that Israel will run out of patience with Iran’s continuing nuclear development.

Several of us heard similar remarks from David Gergen, commentator and former White House staffer under five Presidents, at the annual convention of the Financial Planning Association in Boston on October 5th. In his view, however, an unstable Pakistan should be our greatest external worry. And, Madeleine Albright, former Secretary of State, speaking at a major Schwab –sponsored conference in Atlanta, on September 26, offered the hope that whichever candidate is elected President will seize this juncture to restore America’s moral leadership among the nations of the world.

All three would agree that the domestic economic and global diplomatic environment will present the next President with some of the greatest challenges in many decades. Gergen added the hope…and expectation…that the American people will move away from currently polarized positions to once again unite in a common purpose to attend to these challenges. We, of course, certainly hope so, as well.

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